ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF GLACIAL-MORAINE LAKES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SLOPE OF THE ILE ALATAU
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Abstract
The retreat of glaciers occurring against the background of global warming that began in the second half of the twentieth century is accompanied by the destabilization and partial melting of moraine deposits, which in turn contributes to the formation and active development of glacial-moraine lakes. The increasing number and total area of these lakes within the study region have necessitated an assessment of their current state, morphometric characteristics, and the intensity of their spatiotemporal dynamics. The use of remote sensing methods and GIS technologies has enabled the acquisition of comprehensive and reliable information on lake parameters, facilitated the detailed interpretation of satellite data, and allowed for the compilation of inventory maps for the central and eastern parts of the Ile Alatau. The results of the study demonstrate that the total number of glacial-moraine lakes has increased from 20 in 1978 to 82 at present, while their combined area has grown by 160%: if in 1978 it amounted to 192 900 m², by 2025 it had expanded to 536 452 m². Significant changes have also been observed in the altitudinal distribution of the lakes. Until 2000, they were predominantly located within the 3300-3700 m elevation range; by 2013, this zone had expanded to 3300-3800 m; by 2021 – to 3300-3900 m; and at present (2025), the main concentration of lakes is recorded at elevations of 3600-3800 m and higher, reflecting a pronounced upward migration of lake-formation zones along the altitudinal gradient under conditions of accelerated glacier degradation. The increase in the number and area of glacial-moraine lakes directly raises the likelihood of debris-flow formation and poses a threat to the areas situated downstream. Therefore, monitoring the current state of the lakes, assessing their spatiotemporal dynamics, and promptly identifying potentially hazardous sites are critically important for forecasting and preventing dangerous exogenous processes, as well as for developing effective flood-risk management strategies associated with the outburst of glacial-moraine lakes (GLOF).
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