FORECAST OF LAKE WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE STATE NATIONAL NATURAL PARK “BURABAI” UP TO 2050 TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CLIMATIC CHANGES
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Abstract
The work is devoted to the assessment of the current state and long-term forecast of intra-century water fluctuations in the lakes of the State National Natural Park “Burabai” hereinafter (SNNP “Burabai”). On the basis of reanalysis data and results of numerical modeling, the analysis of the influence of climatic changes in the basins of lakes Shortandy, Burabai, Ulken Shabakty, Kishi Shabakty, Katarkol, Zhukey has been carried out. The linkage of a number of atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices describing climatic variability in the region with the water regime of lakes was assessed. Causal relationships between climatic characteristics and hydrological regime of catchments and water balance of lakes were investigated. Dynamics of precipitation, temperature, runoff and evaporation in the watershed in retrospect and prospect. The results of calculations show a possible reduction in moisture transport and precipitation reduction in the study area in the next 15-25 years, resulting in a delayed decline in lake water levels. Approximately from 2030 to 2050, an increase in evaporation is expected, which should lead to a lowering of the level of these water bodies.
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