ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF DROUGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN KAZAKHSTAN
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Abstract
Climate change poses an increasing threat to regions with hot and arid climates, such as the Southern Kazakhstan. In recent decades, this area has experienced rising average annual temperatures, declining precipitation, and more frequent droughts. These changes adversely affect agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems, posing serious risks to both economic and food security. Droughts result in reduced crop yields, soil degradation, and heightened water scarcity, thereby accelerating desertification processes. This study investigates drought conditions in the Southern Kazakhstan in the context of climate change, focusing on changes in drought intensity and frequency. The primary objective is to analyze drought trends from 1950 to 2023 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which incorporates temperature data. Long-term records of precipitation and air temperature were used, and the Mann-Kendall test was applied to identify trends in climate variables and drought characteristics.
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