RARE SEISMOGENIC EVENTS IN THE ILE ALATAU

Abstract

In the relatively recent geological history of the Ile Alatau region, large earthquakes have triggered significant disturbances to the earth’s surface, including massive seismogenic landslides and debris flows. Through a retrospective analysis of these events and the application of modern research methods, the authors were able to estimate the age and scale of these phenomena. The findings underscore the necessity of considering such large-scale disasters in the planning and development of foothill territories. Given that the region is one of the most seismically active areas in Kazakhstan, the potential for giant landslides and mudflows induced by strong earthquakes represents a tangible and ongoing risk. The study also identified critical gaps in previous research, particularly concerning the timing of past events and methods for quantifying their characteristics. Using data from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery, advanced software, and morphometric analysis of solid runoff and mudflow deposits, the authors refined the quantitative parameters of catastrophic natural events that occurred hundreds or even thousands of years ago. A review of previously published datings of rare geologic catastrophes was conducted. The results show that rare seismogenic phenomena have not been adequately considered in existing engineering protection schemes due to insufficient knowledge and gaps in regulatory design standards. Further studies are essential to address these shortcomings and ensure safer land-use planning in seismically active zones.